What your IB predicted grades actually mean to admissions officers
The half-truth your school told you about IB predictions, the spread between predicted and actual, and the predictor of admissions success that nobody talks about.
Your school’s predictions are not the same thing as your offer. Your school’s predictions are also not the same thing as your final IB score. There’s a third number - the one admissions tutors actually use - and it’s neither of those two.
UK admissions tutors read your predictions through a filter. They know which schools over-predict and by how much. They’ve seen seven years of your school’s predicted-vs-actual scatter plot. A 40 predicted from one school is treated like a 38 from a different school treated like a 42 from a third. The good news: this is publishable, predictable, and often in your favour if you’re at a less-aggressive school. The bad news: you can’t change it.
What you can change is the second-derivative signal - the slope of your improvement across the IB years. Tutors love to see a 38 at the end of Year 12 turn into a 42 by the time predicted grades are submitted. They’re less moved by a flat 42-42 than they are by a 36-42 with a clear story. This piece is about how to think about that slope, what to do if your school’s predictions feel too cautious, and the one thing not to do - politely email your admissions tutor and ask them to “consider your improving trajectory.”
